Big Problem for Dems as Key Group’s Support Fades

If there’s one thing the November midterms revealed, it’s that young voters are becoming increasingly critical of Democratic victories at the polls lately.

Youth Move Away From Democrat Party

The declining support of young people presents a very serious problem for the Democrat Party, as it will be requiring the support of the youth during the 2024 presidential elections.

The AP VoteCast, a comprehensive national survey of voters, found younger voters favored Democratic House candidates by a margin of 53%, as opposed to only 41% for Republican candidates.

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In 2020, 61% of these people favored President Joe Biden against the incumbent, Donald Trump, while just 36% preferred Trump. In 2018, when Democrats utilized a midterm surge to regain the majority in the House, voters between the ages of 18 and 29 supported the party 64% to 34%.

Biden’s party still outperformed expectations in the midterm elections, retaining the Senate and losing only a narrow House majority to the Republicans. The president himself lauded the extraordinary turnout of young voters.

Nonetheless, the trend among America’s youth may be an early symptom of the Democrats’ struggle to sustain the combination of black Americans, women, college voters, city residents, and those in the suburbs that bolstered the party since Trump’s election.

Shortfallings in any portion of this voting bloc could have consequences in the upcoming presidential election.

According to Michael McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida and an authority on elections and statistics, there has been a decline in the number of young voters for the Democrat Party in recent times.

McDonald advised against overinterpreting a possible abnormality. However, he suggested the change may have been exacerbated by factors such as high prices, which has affected young folks especially because their incomes have become less inclined to rise quickly enough to keep up with price increases.

McDonald stated that America’s youth have less loyalty and ties to any one party, which makes them unpredictable and more likely to jump ship to a party that better suits their needs.

He also said the Republicans now stand a chance to recover with the support of the youth.

Diminishing Young Voters

In fact, according to VoteCast, just about a 1/4 of Democrats under 30 years of age indicate that being a Democrat is important to them, compared to around a third of Democrats over the age of 30.

There was some good news for the party, despite the fact the data revealed respondents under 30 did not support the Democrats strongly enough to influence national critical contests.

Voters under the age of 45, which comprises both Generation Z and millennials, supported Biden’s party. This support exists at levels that topped his 2020 popularity in contests for governor in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Kansas, in addition to the Pennsylvania Senate campaign.