Republicans are gaining support from voters by emphasizing inflation, but in tight contests, candidate quality is the deciding factor.
In this round of the Fox News Power Rankings, Democrats gain ground in three House races, while Republicans gain ground in two. Additionally, the GOP loses control of a northeastern governor’s race.
Republicans Likely to Win the House
The House is still likely to go to Republicans. According to the most recent prediction, the GOP will gain 231 seats and Democrats will capture the remaining 204. There is no clear majority for either party in the Senate.
Since the previous estimate, the GOP increased its lead on the generic ballot question by around one point, with inflation continuing to be the top concern. That ties up both parties. Recent polling also contains unsettling news for Democrats.
Independent voters frequently decide tight races, and they are concerned about the state of the economy.
According to a poll conducted by Monmouth University last week, 61% of Independents stated this year’s election would be decided more by economic issues than by rights and democracy (29%, respectively).
The new @FoxNews Power Rankings has the Senate races in PA, GA, NV and AZ rated as a Toss Up with Gubernatorial races in NM, AZ, KS, OR, NV and WI rated as a Toss Up. 31 House races have the Toss Up rating. #MidTerms https://t.co/nwveLjX9x3
— Ryan Schmelz (@rschmelztv) October 11, 2022
Four Weeks Until Election
The 34th congressional district in Texas’ Rio Grande Valley sets incumbents Vicente Gonzales, a Democrat, and Mayra Flores, a Republican, against one another.
After a Democrat resigned, Flores unexpectedly won; nonetheless, the district lines will change in November. President Biden might have taken the 2020 election by 15 points under the amended boundaries.
Together with Gonzales’ position as the incumbent and his reputation as a moderate, it is a significant factor, but Flores is mounting a well-funded and organized campaign.
The district, which stretches from Kingsville to the border with Mexico, is also likely to have a disproportionate impact on immigration, which should work to the GOP’s advantage.
Texas’ 34th is now a Toss Up instead of a Lean D.
Democrats and Republicans are entering the final month of campaigning for the 2022 midterms, which will decide the balance of power in Congresshttps://t.co/bnUMQYPojK
— NowThis (@nowthisnews) October 5, 2022
Republican candidates continue to lack quality, as evidenced by the contest in Ohio’s 9th district.
Democratic incumbent Marcy Kaptur will compete against Republican project manager J.R. Majewski for this seat in the Toledo region. He is among the most pro-Trump Republicans running this year.
Winning the former president’s support placed him in a respectable position for this seat, which is held by a white working-class person. Majewski also claimed to have fought in Afghanistan as a combat veteran following the September 11 attacks, despite the absence of proof of this in the public record.
Instead, they display Majewski’s deployment to a Qatari air base. According to subsequent reports, the far-right politician was reprimanded for drunk driving previously in his military career and Majewski has not offered any evidence to refute those records.
The NRCC pulled out of the race and canceled $1 million in TV advertisements. Lean D now prevails in Ohio’s 9th congressional district, up from Toss Up.