How is Trump Closing the Poll Gap?


The most recent poll by CNN shows the 2020 election at its closest point in more than a year.
If the vote were held today, Joe Biden wound enjoy a mere 4-point lead over President Trump, 50-46.

Trump has also narrowed the gap in crucial swing states, where he trails Biden by just one point. The president’s approval ratings rose a bit at the start of the pandemic, but Trump has seen the overwhelming majority of polls released this summer give Biden considerable leads both nationally and in battleground states. In response, the president and his campaign argued the polls showing him trailing Biden were skewed, and their internal data showed the race far closer nationwide and in swing states.

Trump campaign bullish on poll news

Bill Stepien, Trump’s campaign manager, said, “The pollsters got it wrong in 2016 from July through November of 2016. There were 226 national public polls. Clinton led in 213 of the 226. It wasn’t just the national polls that got it wrong. The state polls also got it wrong: 120 in state polls in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the president led in 1 of 120.” That was Stepien’s first interview after taking over from Brad Parscale.

“Our internal polls show strong standing. We care about our internal polls because they were right in 2016 and right now.”

Trump’s momentum in the polls is probably thanks to the four executive orders he signed to help Americans get through the pandemic after Congress failed to reach an agreement on another stimulus package.

The President’s action supplemented the expanded unemployment insurance fund of states, directed the Departments of Housing and Urban Development and Health and Human Services to identify individuals struggling to make rent or mortgage payments as a result of the pandemic, temporarily waived interest on federally backed student loans, and temporarily deferred the payroll tax.

Other polls also show Trump closing the gap

The latest data from CNN sampled 1,108 people from August 12-15 and has a margin of error of 3.7 percent.

Other recent polls have often shown Biden’s lead to be narrower than generally thought. Commentator Jim Rickards, a former pollster, notes that most polling organizations are run by liberals. They tend to stack the numbers slightly in favor of their bias. Like in 2016, it is also reasonable to expect a large number of shy conservatives, especially among the black community, with whom Trump is already polling far better than predicted.