The past couple of weeks have been turbulent.
Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to carry out a large-scale invasion of Ukraine, endangering the lives of millions of citizens, and many more if the conflict gets out of hand.
US President Biden issued numerous statements that US troops will not get involved in the conflict. With Moscow on its toes, due to the barrage of sanctions aimed at them, a single miscalculation could risk dragging NATO into the conflict.
In order to avoid escalation, the Pentagon denied last week’s request to transfer Polish MiG-29 fighter jets into Ukraine through the US-owned Rammstein base in Germany.
The fleet of fighter jets was offered as a donation by Poland.
In order to avoid dragging their country into the conflict happening at their eastern border, they decided to throw the US into the mix, which certainly would have escalated things much further.
NATO’s no-fly zone poses a threat to peaceful times
That exact stance was taken by John Kirby, the Pentagon’s press secretary, who believed the transfer could result in a devastating Russian reaction if the move were to be considered “incendiary” in nature.
Jets aside, NATO’s recently enforced no-fly zone might be more than enough to produce an equal outcome; analysts are still baffled with the risk NATO took, especially given the repercussions that could follow.
The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has published footage of the destruction of the place of deployment of Ukrainian MLRS and missiles for them. #war #ukraine #Russia #USA #NATO #Kyiv #Mariupol #ukrainewar #Putin #Zelenskyy pic.twitter.com/T4fLfLj6dZ
— Z_V Military News (@Nk_861) March 14, 2022
Rebekah Koffler, a former DIA intelligence officer, believes NATO’s no-fly zone is among the scenarios that have the deadliest outcomes; other, lesser-known actions could bring about an escalation of the war much easier.
She also claims the conflict in Ukraine is simply a proxy war between the US and Russia, noting Russia spent years preparing for the “inevitable” war with the US that could be right around the corner.
Russia could strike first
The only way to hedge against this is to cease operations in Ukraine.
Any step the US army takes in aiding the country could drive Kremlin into believing it’s a preparation for war; if that happens, Russia will undoubtedly strike the first blow.
Russia’s paranoia surrounding the US military prowess isn’t baseless either; they’ve seen the 2003 invasion of Iraq that brought down the Saddam Hussein regime, making us a high-risk opponent in the event of a war breaking out.
— World conflicts Monitoring Center (@WorldBreakingN9) March 6, 2022
Currently, our best bet at avoiding conflict is a constant barrage of sanctions on Russia, Putin, and a slew of other prominent Russian figures, until their military is forced to pull out of Ukraine.
Unfortunately, Putin’s pride is on the line here.
If he starts losing this war he’d initially believed would be a hop, skip, and a jump to a victory, the employment of tactical nuclear weaponry may be inbound.