Russia Fears This More Than Anything Else

In January, US intelligence authorities concluded Russia wanted a “US acknowledgment” of its declared circle of interest over much of the Soviet Union, rather than a direct confrontation with US soldiers.

The Americans Saw This Coming

The yearly constant threats for 2022, which were filed in early February, were issued on Tuesday by the Director-general of National Intelligence.

The intelligence is only up to the end of January, a few weeks before Moscow began its multi-front campaign on Ukraine.

Russia will keep pursuing its objectives in “competitive, often hostile, and provocative methods,” according to the IC.

Russia would seek “to control Ukraine and other nations in its ‘near-abroad,’ while investigating opportunities to build a more decent relationship with Washington,” according to the International Crisis Group at the time.

In January, the IC concluded, “Moscow seeks a deal with the US based on mutual non-interference in both nations’ internal affairs and US acknowledgment of Russia’s projected circle of interest over most of the previous “Soviet Union.”

According to the IC, Russian officials repeatedly believe the US is trying to discredit Russia, “weaken” Russian President Vladimir Putin, and “configure Western-friendly dictatorships in the former Soviet states and elsewhere.”

These are moves that Russian officials “draw the conclusion gives Russia leeway to retaliate,” according to the IC.

President Biden insisted that US soldiers will not battle inside Ukraine against Russia in the weeks preceding up to Russia’s incursion of Ukraine on February 24, and in the 13 days after Putin initiated the war.

Rather, the US has sent tens of thousands of soldiers to Eastern Europe in order to safeguard NATO partners.

Real Action is Off the Table

The Biden government and its European allies in the region proceed to provide military assistance to Ukraine.

However, the West has already ruled out imposing a no-fly zone over the country, claiming that doing so would bring the US and NATO into direct war with Russia and raise tensions.

Russia had not yet attacked Ukraine at the date of the evaluation.

Russia was trying to plan for a military offensive against Ukraine, with very well over 100,000 troops mobilized near the Ukraine frontier, including Russian military units in Belarus, occupied-Crimea, as well as separatist forces in Eastern Ukraine.”

Russia would “proceed to deploy an array of instruments to promote its own objectives or impair the interests of the United States and its friends,” according to the intelligence agencies.

“Military, security, and advanced analytics will play a larger role, with economic ties playing a lower role,” the IC stated.

“We expect Russia to intervene in crises when its lives are at stake, the expected costs of intervention are low, or it perceives an opportunity to profit from a power vacuum,” says the report.